Is the Croatian government implementing a population replacement policy by forcing the Croatian population away and importing foreigners into the country? No, that's not true: The decrease of the resident population and the increase of the foreign population stem from different factors.
The claim appeared in a video on TikTok by Nikola Grmoja, a Croatian member of parliament and the vice president of the political party MOST, on October 22, 2023, under the title (translated from Croatian to English by Lead Stories staff): "Corrupted government of Plenković implements population replacement." It opened (translated from Croatian to English by Lead Stories staff):
THERE IS AN ONGOING POPULATION REPLACEMENT! THEY ARE FORCING CROATIANS AWAY WITH CORRUPTION, THEY ARE IMPORTING FOREIGNERS!
This is what the post looked like on TikTok at the time of writing:
(Source: TikTok screenshot taken on Tue Oct 31 16:18:37 2023 UTC)
The current population situation is not a result of a Great Replacement theory, which suggests there is an attempt to reduce the white population of Western countries and attract immigrants, usually of color. The theory states that immigrants' higher birth rates will eventually allow them to take over national and economic institutions, minimize the native cultures and societies and eventually eliminate the white population entirely.
There are three different factors that, combined, result in the decrease of the domestic population and the increase of a foreign one.
First, the population in Croatia has been declining since 1991. According to the 2021 Census, the Republic of Croatia has 3,871,833 inhabitants. Compared to the 2011 Census, the number of inhabitants decreased by 413,056 persons or 9.64 percent. The share of the population aged 0 to 14 is 14.27 percent, and the share of the population aged 65 and over is 22.45 percent.
Second, many Croatians are emigrating. In 2021, 40,424 Croatians moved abroad, according to the Bureau of Statistics.
And last, the country needs to attract a foreign workforce due to the lack of Croatian workers. S&P Global Ratings published its report on Croatia on September 15, 2023, saying that the biggest structural challenge Croatia faces is a declining population. It estimated that an additional 200,000 foreign workers, 5 percent of its total population, are needed to satisfy labor market needs.
