Is the fact that the same politicians in Croatia are rated both most positively and most negatively in opinion polls proof that market research institutes such as Ipsos Puls and Promocija Plus are publishing false information? No, that's not true: Public opinion in Croatia is very divided, so it is not surprising that the best-known politicians are simultaneously rated the most positively and the most negatively.
The claim appeared in a TikTok video no longer available but archived here, published on March 10, 2024. It opened (translated from Croatian to English by Lead Stories staff):
For years, RTL and NOVA TV have been broadcasting the lies of CRO Demoskop and Ipsos Puls about the ratings of parties and politicians! The list of the most negative politicians is headed by the leaders of the corporation, President Milanović and Prime Minister Plenković, and Mayor Tomašević is in third place. At the same time, the most positive are Zoran Milanović, Andrej Plenković and Tomislav Tomašević.
This is what the post looked like on TikTok at the time of writing:
(Source: TikTok screenshot taken on Tue Mar 26 09:10:30 2024 UTC)
The TikTok video shows a screenshot of an article (archived here) published on a web portal called Istinom protiv laži (as translated: Truth Against Lies). It is known for publishing conspiracy theories and misinformation (archived here).
The fact that the same politicians are ahead in both the "positive" and "negative" lists does not mean that the polls are inaccurate but is a reflection of the public opinion's division. The most well-known politicians in Croatia, the president, and the prime minister, belong to different political parties and different political spectrums, so it is obvious that voters with different political views perceive them as either positive or negative and include them in both lists.
The CRO Demoskop (archived here) is a public opinion survey conducted for Croatian TV channel RTL by the agency Promocija Plus. A survey was conducted on a sample of 1,300 respondents from March 4 to 6, 2024, and the standard error of the sample was +/- 2.7 percent, with a confidence level of 95 percent. According to it, the most positively rated politician was Zoran Milanović with 17.8 percent. He was followed by Andrej Plenković with 16.1 percent, and in third place was Sandra Benčić with 3.6 percent. According to the same poll, the politician considered the worst by voters was Andrej Plenković with 31.6 percent, and Zoran Milanović with 12.5 percent. Peđa Grbin was also on the negative list, whose negative reputation had increased with his rise in popularity, so he was the third on the negative list with 3.8 percent. It was similar to Sandra Benčić, who was in fourth place on the negative list with 3.4 percent, followed by Milorad Pupovac with 2.3 percent, Gordan Grlić Radman with 1.6 percent, and Ivan Pernar with 1.3. percent.
Ipsos Puls (archived here) is a Croatian market research agency that was the first research company in the world to sign the United Nations Global Compact (archived here). This ensures that its operations meet fundamental requirements concerning human rights, labor and environment standards, and anti-corruption. Ipsos Puls' management tools include the "Green Book," the Ipsos Code of Professional Conduct, and the "Policy and Procedure Book," supplemented by a whistle-blowing procedure. According to its website (archived here), Ipsos stands for accuracy, truthfulness, and transparency. Ipsos polls and data are trusted and published in international media.
PROMOCIJA PLUS (archived here) is a market research and opinion polling agency that has been operating in Croatia since 1997. It also covers Slovenia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Kosovo, in cooperation with partner research agencies. In cooperation with the television channel RTL, they conduct surveys on the evaluation of politicians and political parties, called CRO Demoskop. According to the PROMOCIJA PLUS website, its research is conducted following the provisions of the International Code for the Conduct of Market and Social Research (archived here) established by ESOMAR, the World Association for Market and Opinion Research, and the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC). This code aims to ensure that researchers and analysts meet their ethical, professional, and legal responsibilities towards interviewees and clients.
PROMOCIJA PLUS is also a member of the Association for Market, Media and Public Opinion Research (archived here) at the Croatian Chamber of Commerce and it signed the association's Code on the Protection of Personal Data, which includes control procedures that require researchers to ensure that the research results do not deviate from real values.
